Close Probability Score
A statistical estimate of how likely a specific prospect is to close into a paying client, trained on the agency's historical outcome data — the long-run replacement for heuristic lead scoring.
Close probability scoring is the natural endgame of an agency's lead-scoring journey. Once the agency has logged 50-200 outcomes per vertical (closed-won, closed-lost, no-show, ghosted), a statistical model can predict close probability for new prospects with materially better accuracy than a fixed-weight heuristic.
The catch: the data quality is everything. The agency needs accurate outcome tracking back to the original prospect data — most CRMs lose this link the moment the prospect becomes a contact. Tools that maintain the bridge between the prospect signals (at the time the agency contacted them) and the eventual outcome are rare and expensive to build.
For agencies with under 50 closed-won outcomes per vertical, close probability scoring is premature — the model has nothing to train against and reverts to the underlying heuristic anyway. For agencies past that threshold, the lift over heuristic scoring is typically 20-40% on close-rate per dial.
Related terms
- Lead ScoringThe discipline of ranking prospects by likelihood-to-buy before spending outbound effort on them — produces a prioritized call sheet instead of a flat list.
- Opportunity ScoreA 0-100 composite ranking how marketing-ready a local business is, derived from review volume, web presence, ad activity, and demographic context.
- Outcome TrackingLogging the eventual disposition of each prospect (closed-won, closed-lost, ghosted) back against the prospect data — the prerequisite for any kind of statistical scoring or attribution analysis.
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